For decades LED panel lighting wholesale were reserved only to small indicator lights and niche applications. However, due to advancements in light quality, efficiency and cost, LEDs are now poised to transform the lighting market. The incumbent lighting technologies, incandescent and fluorescent, were invented in the 1890s and 1930s respectively. While the existing products have undergone improvements since their inception, they are based on old technology that will not be able to keep up with LEDs in terms of efficiency and control options.
Nearly all major energy using systems, except lighting, have already transitioned to digital communication protocols. For example, in the 1990s the automotive industry replaced carburetors with fuel injectors, and the HVAC industry replaced pneumatic controls with Direct Digital Control (DDC). This evolution towards digital communication spurred the monitoring revolution and improved efficiency by enabling advanced control features.
. Now, the lighting industry is transitioning to the digital age LEDs are inherently digital;. Enabling the lighting industry to capitalize on advanced controls and monitoring features In addition to the improved control and monitoring capabilities of LEDs, the efficacy (lumens per watt) potential is significantly greater than any incumbent technology.
Source: US DOE Building Technologies Office Solid State Lighting Research and Development Multi Year Program Plan..
A recent Department of Energy (DOE) report estimated that if the US were to switch to all LEDs today, annual savings would total 3.9 quadrillion Btus of source energy (Quadrillion = 1015). * This is more than two times the energy produced from the US's entire solar and wind energy portfolio! *
LEDs are no longer a niche product confined to indicator lights, refrigerated display cases, and stoplights. The improved product flexibility and performance will result in LEDs replacing existing products in all major lighting applications. The only question at this point is how long will this process take? The energy savings potential for LEDs is massive but in order to expedite adoption, utility demand side management (DSM) programs will need to adapt.
LEDs as an energy conservation measure (ECM) in DSM programs has already been and will continue to be disruptive because LED product evolution curves are more similar to those for consumer electronics than for other building equipment. This fast paced product evolution complicates prescriptive energy savings analyses in DSM programs because new LED products are released so frequently with significantly improved performance and reduced cost that any prescriptive savings analyses are quickly out-of-date. The DOE recently released a report detailing the projected cost of LED products.
Source: US DOE Building Technologies Office SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning..
With LED costs dropping at 10 - 20 percent annually and efficacy improving at 5 - 10 percent annually, program implementers will need to deviate from traditional prescriptive methods that evaluate cost-effectiveness at a single instance in time Can program implementers begin to utilize the cost. and efficiency projection curves to give their analyses more legs? Perhaps a matrixed approach where a landscape of cost and efficiency is evaluated would allow these analyses to be valid for an entire program cycle? This proposal is often met with concern from utility stakeholders because there is too much risk in projecting cost and efficiency. However, I argue that not accounting for the impending cost and performance improvements is an even riskier affair. The consumer electronics-esque pace of LED panel lighting wholesale evolution is simply too fast for a single point in time prescriptive analysis.
LEDs have significantly changed the landscape of lighting; bringing the lighting industry into the digital age with products that challenge traditional form, performance, and features In order for the utility industry to utilize a prescriptive approach to claim energy savings from LEDs, they will need. to be agile and reconsider the single instance in time energy savings and cost effectiveness analyses.
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